Migration Intention Index of International Students in Russia
https://doi.org/10.15826/umpa.2025.01.004
Abstract
Russia maintains its position as one of the world’s leading destinations for international students, with current enrollment figures reaching 389,000 in 2024 and projected to increase to 410,000 by 2025. Given the recognized quality of Russian higher education, many international graduates represent valuable potential contributors to Russia’s labor market and society. To facilitate their targeted integration, systematic monitoring of migration intentions is essential. This study presents a novel Migration Intention Index designed to assess international students’ propensity to remain in Russia post-graduation. Our methodological framework incorporates multiple factors influencing both the desire and capacity of students to establish long-term residence in Russia. The development process involved сompiling an extensive set of indicator statements, conducting correlation analysis to eliminate negatively correlated variables, and implementing a standardization formula to scale index values between 0 and 1 for intuitive interpretation. Empirical testing yielded an overall Migration Intention Index score of 0.68, with gender-specific scores of 0.71 for male and 0.65 for female respondents. These results indicate stronger retention potential among male international students.
The proposed index serves as an effective tool for assessing and predicting the retention of skilled international graduates.
The methodology offers substantial potential for expansion, including incorporation of additional relevant indicators, and customization to meet specific policy monitoring requirements.
About the Authors
T. K. Rostovskaya
Institute for Demographic Research, Federal Research Sociological Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Tamara K. Rostovskaya – Dr. hab. (Sociology), Professor, Deputy Director
V. I. Skorobogatova
Institute for Demographic Research of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Vera I. Skorobogatova – PhD (Law), Associate Professor, Institute of International Law and Justice of Moscow State Linguistic University
A. V. Larionov
HSE University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Alexander V. Larionov – PhD (Economics), Ph.D (Public Administration), Associate Professor, Department of Demography, Vishnevsky Institute of Demography
R. M. Valiakhmetov
Ufa University of Science and Technology
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Rim M. Valiakhmetov – PhD (Sociology), Dean of the Faculty of Philosophy and Sociology; Head of the Scientific Laboratory of Social and Demographic Research
References
1. Rostovskaya T.K., Skorobogatova V.I., Vasil’eva E.N. Obrazovatel’naya migratsiya v kontekste geopoliticheskikh vyzovov [Educational migration in the context of geopolitical challenges]. Moscow, Prospekt, 2023, 128 p. doi 10.31085/9785392400607-2023-128 (In Russ.).
2. Berezhnaya Yu. N., Gurtov V. A., Dmitriev G. I. Podgotovka nauchnykh i nauchno-pedagogicheskikh kadrov vysshei nauchnoi kvalifikatsii: sostoyanie i problemy [Training of senior scientific and pedagogical staff: present state and problems]. Planirovanie i obespechenie podgotovki kadrov dlya promyshlenno-ekonomicheskogo kompleksa regiona, 2019, vol. 1, pp. 114–118. (In Russ.).
3. Van Mol C., Caarls K., Souto-Otero M. International student mobility and labour market outcomes: an investigation of the role of level of study, type of mobility, and international prestige hierarchies. Higher Education, 2021, vol. 82, pp. 1145–1171. doi 10.1007/s10734-020-00532-3 (In Eng.).
4. Lebedeva T. V. Osobennosti sovremennoi mezhdunarodnoi obrazovatel’noi immigratsii v rossiiskikh regionakh [Features of modern international educational immigration in Russian regions]. Problemy razvitiya territorii, 2024, vol. 28, iss 1, pp. 132–146. doi 10.15838/ptd.2024.1.129.9. (In Russ.).
5. Akul’shina A. V., Zav’yalova L. A. Internatsionalizatsiya vysshego obrazovaniya: mezhdunarodnye vektory strategii razvitiya universiteta [Internationalization of higher education: international vector of the university development strategy]. Vysshee obrazovanie v Rossii, 2018, vol. 27, iss.8–9, pp. 117–125. doi 10.31992/ 0869-3617-2018-27-8-9117-125 (In Russ.).
6. Beregovaya O. A., Kudashov V. I. Internatsionalizatsiya vysshego obrazovaniya v usloviyakh globalizatsii [Problems of linguistic and academic adaptation of international students in Russia]. Perspektivy nauki i obrazovaniya, 2019, vol. 39, iss. 3, pp. 31–43. doi 10.32744/ pse.2019.3.3 (In Russ.).
7. Vorobeva O. D., Kulakov V. M., Mkrtchyan N. V. Human Resources and the Export of Educational Services in the Russian Federation. Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2004, vol. 15, nr 4, pp. 402–411. (In Eng.).
8. Smolyakov D. A. Institutsional’nye usloviya internatsionalizatsii vysshego obrazovaniya: massovaya vysshaya shkola [Institutional conditions for the internationalization of higher education: mass higher education]. Obrazovanie i nauka, 2021, vol. 23, nr 5, pp. 11–37. doi 10.17853/1994-5639-20215-11-37 (In Russ.).
9. Rostovskaya T. K., Skorobogatova V. I., Kholina V. N. Problems and prospects of the online model for exporting Russian education in the context of digital inequality. Changing Societies & Personalities, 2023, vol. 7, nr 3, pp. 65–81. doi 10.15826/csp.2023.7.3.241 (In Eng.).
10. Rostovskaya T. K., Davletshina L. A. Educational Migration as a Tool for Increasing the Labor Force. Integration of Education, 2024, vol. 28 (3), pp. 347–365. doi 10.15507/19919468.116.028.202403.347-365 (In Eng.).
11. Rocheva A. L., Varshaver E. A. Rocheva A. L., Varshaver E. A. Migratsionnye namereniya molodezhi s migratsionnym bekgraundom i bez: rossiiskii sluchai [Migration intentions of young people with and without migration background: Russian case]. Monitoring obshchestvennogo mneniya: ekonomicheskie i social’nye peremeny, 2020, iss. 3, pp. 295– 334. doi 10.14515/ monitoring.2020.3.1632. (In Russ.).
12. Rostovskaya T. K., Zolotareva O. A. Tendentsii akademicheskoi mobil’nosti v Rossii: statisticheskaya analitika i prognostika [Trends in academic mobility in Russia: statistical analytics and forecasting]. Integratsiya obrazovaniya, 2021, vol. 25, nr 3 (104), pp. 421–439. (In Russ.).
13. Schwartz S. H., Zanna M. Universals in the content and structure of values: Theory and empirical tests in 20 countries. In: Advances in experimental social psychology, N.Y., Academic Press, 1992, vol. 25, pp. 1–65. (In Eng.).
14. Wanner P., Pecoraro M., Tani M. Does Educational Mismatch Affect Emigration Behaviour? European Journal of Population, 2021, vol. 37, pp. 959–995. doi 10.1007/s10680021-09595-z (In Eng.).
15. Moshnyaga V. G., Tsurkan V. D. Migratsionnye plany vypusknikov moldavskikh VUZov [Migration plans of graduates of Moldavian universities]. Demograficheskoe obozrenie, 2015, vol. 2, nr 2, pp. 54–73. (In Russ.).
16. Brunner L. R., Karki K. K., Valizadeh N. et al. Unfamiliarities, Uncertainties, and Ambivalent Long-Term Intentions: Conceptualizing International Student-Migrant Settlement and Integration. International Migration & Integration, 2024, vol. 25, pp. 973–996. doi 10.1007/s12134024-01116-1 (In Eng.).
17. Martin S., Dyer J. Health maintenance practices and healthcare experiences among international university students. Journal of the American Association of Nurse Practitioners, 2017, vol. 29 (11), pp. 651–657. doi 10.1002/2327-6924.12524. (In Eng.).
18. Golanova A. V., Golikova E. V., Tregubenko I. A. Otbor statisticheskikh metodov obrabotki dannykh pedagogicheskogo eksperimenta [Selection of statistical methods for processing pedagogical experiment data]. Vestnik Cherepovetskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta, 2021, vol. 5, iss. 104, pp. 167–178. doi 10.23859/1994-0637-2021-5-104-14. (In Russ.).
19. Rybakovskii O. L., Martynenko S. V. Migratsionnaya politika sovremennoi Rossii: struktura i napravleniya [Migration policy of modern Russia: structure and directions]. Narodonaselenie, 2013, vol. 2, iss. 60, pp. 51–62. (In Russ).
20. Sal’nikova E.A. Privlechenie inostrannykh studentov v vysshie uchebnye zavedeniya Germanii i Rossii [Attracting foreign students to higher education institutions in Germany and Russia]. Skif. Voprosy studencheskoi nauki, 2020, vol. № 3 (43), pp. 148–156. (In Russ.).
21. Voropaeva A. V. Osnovnye faktory adaptatsii migrantov v inokul’turnoi srede [The main factors of adaptation of migrants in a foreign cultural environment]. POISK: Politika. Obshchestvovedenie. Iskusstvo. Sotsiologiya. Kul’tura, 2017, vol. 5 (64), pp. 57–64. (In Russ.).
22. Mateus M. A., Rincón A. G., Acosta F. J., Soler I. R., Valero D. R. Keys to managing university reputation from the students’ perspective. Heliyon, 2024, vol. 10, iss. 21. doi 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e39805 (In Eng.).
Review
For citations:
Rostovskaya T.K., Skorobogatova V.I., Larionov A.V., Valiakhmetov R.M. Migration Intention Index of International Students in Russia. University Management: Practice and Analysis. 2025;29(1):45–55. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.15826/umpa.2025.01.004
Views:
140
Email this article 